Critical timing on exit of Paris Agreement

In accordance with article 28 of the Paris Agreement, a country can withdraw 3 years after the agreement’s starting date (November 4, 2016). On November 4, 2019, the U.S. began the year-long process to pull out of the deal. (Meaning it would completely exit on November 4, 2020.) Once the withdraw is affected, the United States will no longer be required to report its emissions to the United Nation.

Besides not reporting emissions to the UN, withdrawing from this agreement will impact other countries by reducing financial aid to the Green Climate fund, which the United States voluntarily for $3 billion portion of this funding.

Why does the Paris Agreement matter?

(It is not only about climate-change, but also about jobs)

The main purpose of this agreement is to hold the increase of global average temperature to within 2°C and as close to 1.5 °C as possible (1).

Yet why does the current administration not support the Paris Agreement? Because they do not think it is a fair agreement. According to the National Economic Research Associates, compliance with the terms of the Parris Accord would cost America as much as 2.7 million lost jobs by 2025(2).Another statement from MIT, if every member nation met all of their commitments through this century, the impact on the climate would be negligible (3). On top of that, by 2040, the United States will be losing “close to $3 trillion in lost GDP and 6.5 million industrial jobs”(4).

Since President-elect party plans to cut US emission to net-zero by 2050. This progressive proposal also includes creating a million jobs in electric vehicle manufacturing [auto industry sector], millions in upgrading building and homes [building and housing sectors] and quarter-million cleaning up after extractive industries [agriculture and conservation sector] (5).

Challenges on building back and reducing emission at the same time

Based on the elected party’s rebuilding plan, all these job creations will inevitably encounter the following dilemma, (but many of them has already had solution):

Aggressive economic activities will hinder the progress of dropping global temperature.

There are four major greenhouse gases that contribute to the climate change: Carbon dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), Nitrous oxide (N2O), and Fluorinated gases (F-gases). And those global greenhouse emissions can also be broken down by the economic sectors. According to this data from the University of Oxford, the energy use in industry contributes 24.2% of global greenhouse gas emission; in agriculture/forestry land use contributes 18.4%, energy use in buildings contributes 17.5%, and in transportation 16.2%.

Air pollution will threaten respiratory related diseases such as Covid-19.

“…the study, which examined more than 3,000 U.S. counties, found that each increase in long-term exposure to fine particulate pollution of one microgram per cubic meter is associated with a 15 percent greater likelihood of dying of covid-19.” – the Washington Post. (6)

The study mentioned above is from Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health. It concludes that a small increase in long-term exposure to fine particle air pollution causes a large increase in the risk of dying from Covid-19.

Another study done by Marshall Burke, a professor in Stanford’s Earth-system science department, shows a pandemic-related air pollution reduction during a period of two months has reduced almost half by comparing the PM2.5 level in 2020 and the average PM2.5 level of 2016-2019.

PM2.5 is the fine particle that causes asthma, respiratory inflammation, jeopardizes lung functions and even promotes cancers, its impact on human respiratory system cannot be overlooked. According to his estimate, this level of pollution reduction could save thousands people’s lives.

So, what is the solution?

There is no one size fits all antidote. Again, I am not a scientist but I am confident to tell you that we need to wait till the vaccine comes out (and the majority of population get vaccinated) then we can begin more aggressive economic activities (to avoid the respiratory-related disease cause by air pollution). There are also sustainable development guides by USGBC (7) that offers us clear guidance of how to reduce emissions during constructions. Such as:

Limit unnecessary idling to no more than five minutes in any 60 minutes period.
Implement a preventive maintenance plan for all equipment according to manufacture specification.
Use ultra-low sulfur diesel fuel that meets American Society of Testing and Materials (ASTM) specification with sulfur less than or equal to 15ppm for all non-road diesel equipment
Avoid using Tier 0 engine construction equipment

There is no politics in a sustainable World

Why don’t we take a break from the politics. For those are able to work remotely, let’s appreciate more our homes, eat, drink and be merry (and thankful). For those want to stay home but cannot leave their workplace, let’s help them to get their cottage industry (8) started. For those who like to go out, let’s make their trips easier.

nearby carryout places

Porter Wagoner-Eat Drink and Be Merry.jpeg

Stay-Home Trio: a bottle of local-made beverage, a piece of classy music, and a good book. PS. take delight in slower-lifestyle before vaccines come out. (click the images to have a taste)

go to etsy

Notes and References:

2°C difference is equal to 3.6°F. 1.5°C difference is equal to 2.7°F.
See Statement by President Trump on the Paris Climate Accord, Past Administration Archives, June 1, 2017.
Learn more on “Each Country’s Share of CO2 Emissions” by Union of Concerned Scientists. (ucsusa.org)
A quick lookup at the current GDP by sectors; the United States GDP in 2020 was 21.48 trillion. Also, based on this statistic for 2020:
- The mining/utility is about 2.5% of total GDP.
- Transportation and warehouse is also about 2.8% of GDP.
- Construction is about 4.3% of GDP.
Therefore, the above-related industries were 9.6 % of GDP, which is about 2 trillion USD. Considering all the manufacturing industry (10.8% of GDP), it will come up to about 4.4 trillion. If the projected GDP loss in 2040 is based on the same current-dollar gross output, it could mean 70% of the related industry has to transfer to green-energy-related areas.
Information via Build Back Better Plan (accessed date: 11. 9. 2020)
Read the original story “The silver lining to coronavirus lockdowns: Air quality is improving” from the Washington Post.
The SITES program was developed through a collaborative, interdisciplinary effort of the American Society of Landscape Architects, The Lady Bird Johnson Wildflower Center at The University of Texas at Austin, and the United States Botanic Garden.
The definition of a “cottage industry” is a manufacture operated at home. Read more about Cottage Industry from Wikipedia.
Here is the consolidation of the annual air quality data from EPA that shows the unhealthy days in DMV area has significantly improved in 2020 (note, there are only 305 days have been counted in 2020). See the graphic below. Interested in knowing the air quality in your place, visit here. You could also use AirNow to check the current air quality at your location.