100 Days Vaccination Plan

After the inauguration, our local government leaders diligently shared their vaccination plans as a part of President Biden’s rescue plan, including the goal of vaccinating 100 million people in his first 100 days in office.

In the beginning, I found the numbers were discouraging. Because the percentage of population vaccinated was very low: the first week (or two weeks), DC only vaccinated 5.8% of its residents; Maryland only vaccinated 3.3% of its residents and Virginia only vaccinated 3.5% of its population. It seems like there is going to be an endless tunnel of waiting for us to get fully reopened.

However, when I looked at the data again closely, I realized there is Hope.

At What Point Can We Reach Herd Immunity?

Based on Dr.Fauci’s suggestion, 75% of the total population getting vaccinated will allow us to reach herd immunity. (Implying the R0 will be less than 1). And the recent vaccination data across from DMV jurisdictions all show an approximate 5% of progress every week. When I say “progress” here I mean the percentage of improvement to reach herd immunity.

This early January was hectic, people were still in the holiday mode, and the vaccination teams needed to be assembled. The officials also need to layout the operation system and groundworks. So, let’s assume our first vaccination week was on January 18th in all three states in DMV area, and if we keep up this 5% improvement speed, then by the 20th week (the week of May 31st) of vaccination, we will administer 100% (of the first shot) for the population needed to reach the herd immunity. Assuming there will be 28 days (1) apart for all the participants to get the second shot, by the week of June 21st, all the 2nd dose will be administered.

What Does 5% “Progress” Look Like?

That means DC needs to administer 26,466 people per week; Maryland needs to administer 226,713 people per week; and Virginia needs to administer 320,082 people per week. And this number will double on the fourth week of the vaccination plan.

How Feasible is It to Reopen Hybrid In-person Learning on March 1st?

By March 1st, Governor Hogan plans to reopen Hybrid In-person Learning, and on that date we would be on the 7th week of vaccination plans. This means we will still need to wear masks and practicing social distancing. (Especially early spring is the pollen season, it would be safer to keep wearing masks to avoid sneezing in the public). On the week of April 19th, we would reach more than half of the required population to reach heard immunity.

Read more on how to quickly layout the vaccination site at indoor basketball court.

Notes and References:

The currently authorized vaccines require 2 shots to get the most protection. Pfizer doses should be given 3 weeks apart; Moderna doses should be given 1 month apart. See “How many shots of Covid-19 vaccine will be needed“ from CDC.
Keep social distancing and wearing masks are still crucial for school reopening. Also see “Do I need to wear a mask and avoid close contact with others if I have gotten 2 doses of the vaccine?“ from CDC.
President Biden ramps up vaccine goal to 150 million doses in first 100 days. (1.25.2021 press release)