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On June 23rd 2020, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that he is going to authorize changes to Britain’s social distancing guidelines, including relaxing the two-meter rule down to one meter plus (3.3 feet and more).
In the last article, we found out that if we maintain 6 feet social distancing, the maximum occupancy restaurants could have is less than 40%, leading to 50% of restaurants’ original capacity, if restaurants divide dinner admittance times and restrict their turnover time (from 90 minutes to 60 minutes).
I am neither a scientist, nor a public health professional that could give you enough confidence in easing our own social distancing guidelines in this country. My goal in this exercise is to help you understand the impact of these two guidelines and their implications on the restaurant industry. These guidelines are keeping 50% occupancy and shortening the social distancing from 6 feet down to 3.5 feet. I want to explore how these adjustments will impact restaurants’ traffic flow, capacity, and revenue.
Scenario 1: Only follow 3.5 feet social distancing guideline
The illustration above shows the total serving seats of this restaurant is 79 altogether.
Before the pandemic, the restaurant’s capacity scenario was: 79 x 2.5 (assuming seats turnover rate) =198 total serving guests. (In this scenario, assuming 90 minutes per seat turnover, 5–10 minutes table cleanup/prep time, 2–3 turns per table per night.)
With social distancing and reservation systems, total 188 guests could be potentially served per evening. This would be 95% of the original capacity.
Scenario 2: Follow both 3.5 feet social distancing and maximum 50% occupancy guidelines
The illustration above shows the total serving seats of this restaurant is 79 altogether.
Before the pandemic, the restaurant’s capacity scenario was: 79 x 2.5 (assuming seats turnover rate) =198 total serving guests. (In this scenario, assuming 90 minutes per seat turnover, 5–10 minutes table cleanup/prep time, 2–3 turns per table per night.)
With social distancing and reservation systems, total 144 guests could be potentially served per evening. This would be 73% of the original capacity.
What is the main take away?
As we discussed before, if restaurants open and follow the 6 feet guideline (without adding outdoor seating) the maximum occupancy could be reached is less than 40% and leading capacity would be less than 50% , which is not financially viable for these small business owners.
If those restaurants want to reach more than 70% of leading capacity, the authorities must reduce the guidelines to approximately 3.5 feet and maintain 50% occupancy for a more health-cautious approach.
However, the recent data shows the nation-wide coronavirus cases have drastically increased again due to quick and not well-designed guidelines: 40 jurisdictions have now reported more than 10,000 cases of covid-19. Those cases are increasing due to community spread. Restaurants often provided environments where airborne virus could spread persons-to-person, including “between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet)”.
So, let’s go back to my original question.
“Is 3 feet (and more) a game changer for restaurants profitability?”
YES. It is a game changer, because it will help restaurants receive enough guest flow to support their operations financially.
“Is 3 feet (and more) a healthy guideline to pursue when states are reopening?”
NO. As you can see from the CDC data, there is a concern that even the current 50% occupancy guideline are contributing to community spread.
Why do I keep talking about reopening guidelines?
“You are not a public health expert. Why do you keep talking about these guidelines?” you might ask.
As my other article mentioned before, those local restaurants are major employers in the main street type businesses. Most main street type of businesses form a good rapport with local communities and become a crucial part of local districts: they keep the lights on and offer valuable dining experiences. Most importantly, they are the essence of enlivening local neighborhoods.
“So, how can we open up our economy in a healthy way that protects local communities and businesses?”
— stay tuned.